Methodology of the projections

Price Indices - Methodology

IPCA
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor - Amplo (Consumer Price Index)
Collecting institution:	IBGE
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.ibge.gov.br/

IPCA-15
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice de Preços ao Consumidor Amplo - 15 (Consumer Price Index)
Collecting institution:	IBGE
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.ibge.gov.br/

INPC
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice Nacional de Preços ao Consumidor (Consumer Price Index)
Collecting institution:	IBGE
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.ibge.gov.br/

IPC-Fipe
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice de Preços ao Consumidor - Fipe (Consumer Price Index)
Collecting institution:	FIPE/USP
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.fipe.com.br/

IGP-DI
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice Geral de Preços - Disponibilidade Interna (Wholesale Price Index)
Collecting institution:	FGV
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the sitehttp://www.fgv.br/

IGP-M
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice Geral de Preços - do Mercado (Wholesale Price Index)
Collecting institution:	FGV
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.fgv.br/

IPA-DI
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice de Preços por Atacado - Disponibilidade Interna (Wholesale Price Index)
Collecting institution:	FGV
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.fgv.br/

IPA-M
Monthly percentage variation of the index
Projected variable:	Índice de Preços por Atacado - do Mercado (Wholesale Price Index)
Collecting institution:	FGV
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.fgv.br/

Industrial Production - Methodology

Industrial Production
Percentage variation over the same month of the previous year
Projected variable:	Produção Física Brasil
Collecting institution:	IBGE
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.ibge.gov.br/

Rates - Methodology

Exchange Rate
End of period R$/US$
Projected variable:	Nominal Exchange Rate R$/US$ according to PTAX 800 SELL spot
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/

Exchange Rate - Average
Annual Average
Projected variable:	Nominal Exchange Rate R$/US$ according to PTAX 800 SELL spot
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/

Over-Selic Rate
End of period % p.a.
Projected variable:	Nominal spot Over-Selic interest rate
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	monthly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/

Over-Selic Rate - Average
Annual Average % p.a.
Projected variable:	Nominal spot Over-Selic interest rate
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/

GDP - Methodology

GDP
Percentage variation over the same quarter of the previous year
Projected variable:	GDP-Total, and by sector (Agriculture and Livestock, Industry and Services)
Collecting institution:	IBGE
Frequency of data collection:	quarterly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.ibge.gov.br/
Total GDP projected at market prices and GDP by sector projected at added values.

Trade Balance - Methodology

Trade Balance
US$ billion in the year
Variáveis projetadas:	Imports, Exports and Trade Balance
Collecting institution:	MDIC - Secex
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.mdic.gov.br/

Balance of Payments - Methodology

Current Account
US$ billion in the year
"-" means deficit
Projected variable:	Current Account Balance in the Balance of Payments according to the methodology adopted by Banco Central do Brasil methodology
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/
Obs.: Interest earned on external intercompany loans to Brazilian residents is considered in the projections.

Net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
US$ billion in the year
Projected variable:	Net FDI Inflow according to the methodology adopted by Banco Central do Brasil
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/
Obs: Intercompany loans (net of their amortization) are included in Net FDI. Brazilian loans to non-residents are not considered in this item.

Fiscal - Methodology

Harmonized Nominal Result
% of GDP in the year
Projected variable:	Nominal Result of the Consolidated Public Sector in the "under the line" concept as calculated by Banco Central do Brasil, excluding the effect of the exchange rate on the net stock of the public sector debt
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/
Obs.: The effect of exchange rate variation on public sector net debt is not included in this item.

Primary Result
% of GDP in the year
Projected variable:	Primary Result of the Consolidated Public Sector in the "under the line" concept as calculated by Banco Central do Brasil
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/

Net Public Sector Debt
% of GDP in the year
Projected variable:	Net Public Sector Debt
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/

Regulated Prices - Methodology

Regulated Prices
Percentage variation in the year
Projected variable:	Regulated prices variation
Collecting institution:	Banco Central do Brasil
Frequency of data collection:	yearly
For additional information, please access the site http://www.bcb.gov.br/