Banco Central do Brasil

About the Investor Relations and Special Studies Department (Gerin)

The Investor Relations and Special Studies Department (Gerin) was created in April 1999 as part of the monetary policy framework of the new inflation-targeting regime. Its objective is to improve two-way communication between the Banco Central do Brasil and the private sector (both domestic and foreign), with a special focus on investors.

In January 2011, the Investor Relations Group (Gerin) and the Special Studies Department (Geesp), both subordinated to the Deputy Governor for Economic Policy, joined together and originated the Investor Relations and Special Studies Department (Gerin).

Gerin currently manages two mailing lists totaling around 24,000 members and distributes the Central Bank's main reports via e-mail (Portuguese and English). Gerin also produces its own reports and documents, all available at www.bcb.gov.br, including:

  • Focus-BC Reports: Short reports providing information and analysis on various aspects of the Brazilian economy and economic policy;
  • Focus-Market Readout: The results of Gerin's market expectations survey, a daily survey of forecasts of roughly 120 banks, asset managers and other institutions (real sector companies, brokers, consultancies and others) for the Brazilian economy, published every Monday;
  • Focus-Distribuições de Frequência (in Portuguese only): Report that shows the evolution of the distirbutions of frequency of the medians of the market expectations for the IPCA for the current and next year* and for the 12-month ahead Selic rate, collected by the Gerin, with 1- and 3-month lags, published every first Monday of each month (in case it is not a working day, in the first subsequent working day);
    * except for the first report of the year, which shows the monthly evolution of the distributions of frequency for the IPCA relative to the previous and to the current year, for all the year that has just ended.
  • Market Expectations Time Series: Updated weekly, containing the daily history of market expectations for key economic variables since 2001;
  • Top 5 Rankings: Monthly and annual rankings of the best forecasters among the institutions that participate in the market survey;
  • Frequently Asked Questions: Booklets aimed at explaining economic concepts, data, and methodologies used in Brazil,
  • Presentations from the Board members: PowerPoint presentations delivered by Central Bank Board members in Brazil and abroad.

Regarding Special Studies, Gerin coordinates and elaborates studies under the demand of the Deputy Governor for Economic Policy.

In Brazil, in addition to Gerin in Banco Central do Brasil, the society and the financial community can count on the services of the National Treasury Investors Relations Office.

The Investors Relations Office was created in 2001, integrating the Coordenação Geral de Planejamento Estratégico da Dívida Pública – Cogep. The area has the focus on developing, maintaining and improving the relationship with participants of the national and international financial markets, aiming at providing transparency and more information regarding the management of the Federal Public Debt and the National Treasury financing policy, as well as contributing to the broadening of the investors' base.

Both Banco Central do Brasil and the National Treasury participate in the Brazil: Excellence in Securities Transactions (BEST Brazil) activities. The BEST Brazil initiative is aimed at providing the most comprehensive information on the developments of the Brazilian capital market, opportunities of investments and a closer channel of communication with the most prominent representatives of the Brazilian capital market. In addition to the Treasury and the BCB, this initiative also involves other official agencies, such as the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil, reinforcing the soundness of the regulatory framework and the organization of the Brazilian Financial System. The main activities of BEST Brazil consist of roadshows, meetings and other projects in the main financial centers all around the world. More information regarding BEST Brazil is available at www.bestbrazil.org.br.


About the Market Expectations Survey

The survey of market expectations began in May 1999 as part of the transition to the inflation targeting system. The survey was created in order to monitor market expectations regarding the main macroeconomic variables, and improve the inputs for the monetary policy decision-making process.

Currently, the survey monitors market expectations for different inflation indices, GDP growth, industrial production growth, the exchange rate, the Selic interest rate, fiscal variables, and external sector variables. As a result of the increasing importance of monitoring expectations to the Central Bank, in November 2001 Gerin established a specific website (www.bcb.gov.br/expectativa) and system (the Market Expectations System) for conducting the survey. As a result, the speed at which information reaches the Central Bank was increased, and the Central Bank can now monitor market sentiment online (participating institutions with a login ID and password can provide forecast information at any time).

The system calculates sample statistics from the data gathered in real time, and thereby enables the generation of daily reports for the members of the Board. One of these reports, the Focus-Market Readout, is published every Monday at the Central Bank website at the internet.

To foster private sector forecasting expertise, Gerin publishes the short- and medium-term Top 5 rankings of forecasters (both on monthly bases), and long-term and annual rankings (in January of each year).

The System of Market Expectations was awarded, in 2010, the second prize in the Second Regional Statistical Innovation Competition for the Latin America and the Caribbean. Created in 2007, the World Bank Competition aims to award the statistical programs and activities that outperform for their quality, design, implementation and evaluation of public policies that are priority for development, and also for presenting innovative elements.

The statistical programs and activities of 26 countries of the Latin America and the Caribbean were evaluated by a committee of experts in statistics from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the IADB, Eurostaat and Instituto Nacional de Estadística. The winner programs participated on the award ceremony on October 20, 2010, at the World Bank headquarter, in Washington.

More information on the evaluation and award can be obtained at the web pages 2nd Regional Statistical Innovation Competition and 2nd Statistical Award of the World Bank (in English), 2º Prêmio Regional para Inovação Estatística (in Portuguese), and Segundo Concurso Regional de Innovación en Estadísticas and Segundo Concurso del Banco Mundial (in Spanish).


Team

Renato Jansson Rosek - Head (renato.jansson@bcb.gov.br)

Andre Barbosa Coutinho Marques - Deputy Head (andre.marques@bcb.gov.br)

Carolina Freitas Pereira Mayrink (carolina.pereira@bcb.gov.br)

Henrique de Godoy Moreira e Costa (henrique.godoy@bcb.gov.br)

Luciana Valle Rosa Roppa (luciana.roppa@bcb.gov.br)

Luís Gustavo Umeno ( luis.umeno@bcb.gov.br)

Luiza Betina Petroll Rodrigues (luiza.rodrigues@bcb.gov.br)

Manuela Moreira de Souza (manuela.moreira@bcb.gov.br)

Márcio Magalhães Janot (marcio.janot@bcb.gov.br)

Maria Claudia Gomes Pereira S Gutierrez (maria.claudia@bcb.gov.br)

Contact us:

Phone +55 (61) 3414-3980

E-mail: gerin@bcb.gov.br